The Malaysian Insider :: Features
The Malaysian Insider :: Features |
| Warming temperatures could multiply Katrina-like hurricanes Posted: 19 Mar 2013 09:54 AM PDT
Scientists have long studied the relationship between warmer sea surface temperatures and cyclonic, slowly spinning storms in the Atlantic Ocean, but the new study attempts to project how many of the most damaging hurricanes could result from warming air temperatures as well. The extreme storms are highly sensitive to temperature changes, and the number of Katrina-magnitude events could double due to the increase in global temperatures that occurred in the 20th century, the researchers reported in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. If temperatures continue to warm in the 21st century, as many climate scientists project, the number of Katrina-strength hurricanes could at least double, and possibly rise much more, with every 1.8 degree F (1 degree C) rise in global temperatures, the researchers said. Computer projections assessed by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that global temperatures could rise by between 1.8 degrees and 10.8 degrees F (1 degree and 6 degrees C) by century's end. To figure out how many of the most extreme hurricanes these higher temperatures might spawn, Aslak Grinsted of the Centre for Ice and Climate at the University of Copenhagen and his co-authors looked at storm surges, which are often the most damaging aspect of these monster storms. A storm surge is the abnormal rise in water, over and above normal high tide, pushed toward shore by the winds whipping around a big cyclonic storm. Much of the damage from Hurricane Katrina, an estimated US$108 billion (RM346 billion), was caused by high storm surges across a wide area of the Gulf of Mexico coast, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Superstorm Sandy, which plowed into the northeastern US coast with hurricane-strength winds last year, cost an estimated US$75 billion, NOAA said. The researchers looked at storm surges going back to 1923, and related those to how warm air temperatures were when the surges occurred. Then, using computer models, they projected how storm surges might be influenced by future warming. Storm surges can be a more accurate gauge of a hurricane's severity than wind speed, like those on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, Grinsted said by phone from Denmark. "When people talk about (hurricane) intensity normally, then they mean wind speed," he said. "But that is not what is causing the most damage only. Sometimes it's about how fast it is traveling." He said that was the case with Sandy, which travelled so slowly and stretched over such a wide area that its impact was intense, even though wind speeds abated somewhat by landfall. Previous research on the link between climate change and hurricanes has suggested that there may be fewer hurricanes overall but more stronger ones as global temperatures rise. This study indicates there will be an increase of hurricanes of all magnitudes, but the increase will be greatest for the most extreme events. — Reuters |
| Despite evidence, parents’ fears of HPV vaccine grow Posted: 19 Mar 2013 09:34 AM PDT OKLAHOMA CITY, March 19 — More parents of teen girls not yet fully vaccinated against the human papillomavirus (HPV), which protects against cervical cancer, are intending to forgo the shots altogether — a trend driven by vaccine safety concerns, according to a US report.
And the proportion of parents of those girls who said they didn't plan to get their daughters the rest — or any — of their HPV shots rose from 30 per cent to 44 per cent. "These are wonderful vaccines which are preventing severe diseases," said study leader Paul Darden from the University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center in Oklahoma City. "HPV is the first vaccine that will prevent cancer, which is a tremendous health benefit." The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that all children, both boys and girls, receive three HPV shots as preteens. "There were a lot of very sensationalized anecdotal reports of (girls) having bad reactions to the vaccine," said pediatrician and vaccine researcher Amanda Dempsey from the University of Colorado, Denver. "Safety concerns have always risen to the top of the pile, in terms of being one of the main reasons people don't get vaccinated, which is unfortunate because this is one of the most well-studied vaccines in terms of safety and is extremely safe," added Dempsey, who wasn't involved in the new study. Darden and his team got their data from a national immunization survey that involved phone calls to almost 100,000 parents. They found that from 2008 to 2010, the per centage of teens who were up to date on their Tdap (tetanus, diphtheria and pertussis), MCB4 (meningococcal) and HPV had all risen slightly. But aside from the fact that a majority of girls were not up to date on their HPV shots in 2010, the researchers also found that the proportion of parents of those girls who said they didn't plan to get their daughters the rest — or any — of their HPV shots rose from 30 per cent to 44 per cent. At the same time, the proportion who cited safety concerns as their reason for abstaining from getting the HPV vaccine increased from less than five per cent to 16 per cent. For all three vaccines covered in the survey, the other reasons parents gave for skipping their teenagers' shots included not thinking they were necessary, not having had a specific vaccine recommended by a doctor and, for the HPV vaccine, believing that their child was not sexually active. Dempsey said past research has suggested that although more girls are being vaccinated against HPV, vaccine rates haven't increased as quickly as for other shots. Parents shouldn't rely on the media or Internet to learn about vaccines, Dempsey said, since it's hard to tell what information is legitimate. "If they have questions or concerns, they should trust their provider to give them accurate information about the vaccine," he added. Darden reports having been a consultant for Pfizer, and one of his co-authors is on a safety monitoring board for vaccine studies funded by Merck, which makes Gardasil, one of the HPV vaccines. — Reuters |
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