The Malaysian Insider :: Opinion
The Malaysian Insider :: Opinion |
| GE13: Count the seats not the rhetoric Posted: 24 Apr 2013 05:38 PM PDT
APRIL 25 — Will Pakatan win this general election? Malaysians daily are looking for signs and they are seeking information to tell them that it is going one way or the other. It is the lack of credible data that is driving the suspense up, with varying results. Those who clamber up and out of their beds in the morning high on adrenaline and risking catatonia by staring at the newsfeed and Facebook till the day ends; and others sick and tired of too much politics and speculations. Why objectivity matters for all, and more so the uninitiated The mainstream media continues to overplay the seeming brilliance of Umno leaders even if many don't believe that. Still, while disbelief remains, most Malaysians can't fathom conceptually a day without Umno ruling. Never before a nation so afflicted with the Stockholm Syndrome, and unsurprisingly a nation with the longest "democratically" elected government without interruption. Alternative media is suggesting either possibility, but being limited by size and access, they are limited to observations and expert opinions. The whole nation is muted in a sense. Foreign visitors are generally shocked at the level of knowledge the general Malaysian has about the election. But does it matter? There are those who say let the people vote as they will and then allow the count at the end of polling be what it is. No point in continuing the chatter. However, chatter is a central pivot of a democracy. How things are, how the chances of candidates, why some people agree with one party's manifesto over another. The people will discuss, rumour-monger and crack gags and through that arrive at an informed choice. An informed choice does not mean the right choice; there are strictly no right choices in an election. By broad and open engagement without fear an electorate arrives at an informed choice. Countries cannot promise the best government through their laws and institutions, but they can give the people the best chance to make an informed decision. A government affects all; therefore asking people to decide their future without all the necessary access to information and debate is criminal. Blaming people later for not considering the candidate before voting them in is disingenuous and convenient. The fact that this government tries hard to prevent the masses from having a proper consideration tells you which direction they want to take the country. Perhaps it is more apt to say where they want to keep the country firmly at indefinitely. So let's count I'm convinced Pakatan Rakyat will form the government. But I am a party operator, so do reject outright my prognosis if you want to. Let me return to my initial observation, it is hard for Malaysians to say outright that BN will fall in this general election. They are the only government 95 per cent of the electorate have ever known. The only way then to break the impasse is to count the seats with the votes available and not become overly distracted with the total seat count. Commonly people rationalise the seats gained by Pakatan in 2008 and weigh their support base currently. This how my colleagues in Barisan Nasional break it down. Quickly without the bottom three performers — Johor, Sabah and Sarawak — this the spiel that they spew; Penang is a fortress, but there is Balik Pulau to be won to claim for the next four years that Penang is ruled by the Chinese, Kedah has a weak and often boisterous MB, Perak-Selangor-Negri Sembilan-Terengganu-Pahang status quo, and no point mentioning Perlis-Kelantan-Malacca. Then there are the Malays upset with the not-Malay-enough Pakatan Rakyat and the Nambikei (Trust) leading a Najib thrust into the Indian vote. Completing the analysis — Johor is Umno state, and Sabah and Sarawak are about managing the locals, keeping them divided and pouring the resources late. Summary: Everything hunky-dory on May 6 when Najib is chauffeured to the palace. The other view As much as Malaysians generally can't, I repeat again, see a future without Umno on top, they are not going to submit to that analysis. Something has affected the national psyche and reducing the people of this country to a series of stereotypes is not welcome anymore. Let's apply a broad stroke, and my apologies for sizing down the larger play in the full assessment. Penang is stronger than ever, but yes defending Balik Pulau will be a challenge, it was not easy to win in 2008 either. The Kedah assessment will be crucial, but in seats like Alor Star Pakatan fancies its chances. The Perlis parliamentary seats are in play and the feelings of Perak residents of the 2009 state government change affect them today. Selangor is my home state, and the centre of most issues raised against Pakatan over the last five years. Pressed hard and whacked mercilessly, the state has kept going and the people know it. I believe they will come good, and let's see how fair my vote in Hulu Langat goes. The Negri Sembilan changeover has been a talking point for three years at least and there has been little deflection from the federal government. State powers are likely to shift. Terengganu, Kelantan, Pahang and Malacca may undoubtedly stay as is, but the total count likely to rise for Pakatan. Which brings things to a head when talking about Johor. It would be diabolical if on Polling Day even Bakri is lost. Johor is about to find itself in new territory, a marked number of Pakatan MPs. There is general consensus that there will be an upswing in the state, just the numbers uncertain. Sabah and Sarawak cannot be taken for granted anymore. There is dissent from the people there, and there is enough reason to trust the dissent, as evidenced in the 2011 Sarawak state election. Before you want to rain down on my parade it is worth remembering that the expectation is to gain substantial numbers from all three states, not to snatch the majority of the seats over there. The under-30 voters by demographics and aggressive registration are set to vote and form the largest voting bloc, many first-timers. While the "keeping them in check" has gone on from public schooling and national service, they are also recipients of an economy harsh on the young. And there is the other constant, most young people never vote for the entrenched dominant group. The young dare risk their vote with the untested federally. The total seats won will be up from 2008, the question is how much of an up and will that be enough. And for the usual voter, actually crossing and adding the seats one by one will not frighten them, it is when they are deciding the seats objectively one by one finally will they find themselves dumbfounded. There is a different reality possible, even if it has never happened before in this country. Go sniff around, the change is probably being masked by the white noise filling the space. * This is the personal opinion of the columnist. | |
| Posted: 24 Apr 2013 05:05 PM PDT
25 APRIL — Pilihan Raya Umum ke-13 kali ini mencatatkan sejarahnya yang tersendiri. Buat pertama kalinya, pada hari penamaan calon 20 April lalu tiada penamaan calon yang ditolak mahupun calon yang menang tanpa bertanding. Senario tersebut merupakan sesuatu yang cukup asing dalam kancah politik negara. Bahkan sesuatu yang dianggap sebagai kurniaan dan kemenangan percuma sudah hilang dari pandangan. Pastinya, bagi parti politik yang mengharapkan situasi itu untuk berlaku, ia bagaikan satu wake-up call. Kini mereka perlu bekerja keras untuk mendapatkan kemenangan itu. Apa yang cukup signifikan mengenai PRU 13, ialah kehadiran seramai 270 calon Bebas yang akan bertanding menentang parti pemerintah dan pembangkang. Angka tersebut merupakan peningkatan yang ketara berbanding dengan PRU 2008. Menariknya juga, bilangan calon Bebas yang datang dari kedua-dua parti pemerintah dan pembangkang agak seimbang. Senario itu membuktikan kepada kita beberapa perkara. Pertama, perasaan tidak puas hati kalangan pemimpin yang tidak dicalonkan untuk bertanding. Mereka merasakan bahawa mereka wajar dicalonkan kerana pengalaman serta keupayaannya. Bagi kumpulan pemimpin sedemikian, mereka merasa tercabar dan dihina. Pendek kata, pemilihan senarai calon yang diputuskan kepimpinan tertinggi tidak disenangi. Kedua, kesediaan begitu ramai calon Bebas untuk bertanding bertujuan memberi alternatif kepada rakyat untuk memilih pemimpin yang selama ini hanya datang dari dua blok parti sahaja. Ketiga, kemunculan calon Bebas satu manifestasi yang cukup baik untuk demokrasi negara. Dalam semangat demokrasi negara, ia tidak menghalang mana-mana calon yang layak dan berkemampuan untuk bertanding. Kehadiran begitu ramai calon Bebas boleh membentuk kuasa ketiga dalam politik negara yang selama ini didominasi oleh parti pemerintah. Blok Bebas boleh bertindak sebagai pengimbang kepada parti pemerintah dan pembangkang. Tatkala politik negara ketika ini terlalu taksub dengan sentimen kepartian dan kaum, blok Bebas boleh menawarkan satu pilihan yang baharu. Namun untuk blok Bebas menjadi sebuah kuasa ketiga yang digeruni, pelbagai aspek perlu diambil kira terlebih dahulu. Antaranya, sejauhmanakah ketelusan calon-calon Bebas? Adakah integriti mereka benar-benar bersih? Sejauhmanakah mereka benar-benar bersih seperti yang didakwa? Pasca PRU 12 bagaimanapun memberikan gambaran yang kurang baik mengenai calon Bebas. Tindakan beberapa calon Bebas yang mengambil keputusan untuk memihak kepada parti tertentu jelas membuka pekung sebenar calon-calon terbabit. Kepada pemimpin-pemimpin sedemikian, keinginan untuk menjadi seorang calon Bebas tidak lain daripada meraih faedah dan habuan yang selama ini tidak pernah dinikmatinya. Pendek kata, siapa yang dapat menawarkan faedah terbaik, pihak itulah yang disokongnya. Bagi penulis, ini adalah prinsip perjuangan murahan yang wajar ditolak oleh semua rakyat Malaysia. Bukan sahaja tindakan tersebut menipu dan mengkhianati mandat yang diberikan oleh rakyat Malaysia, tetapi juga memalukan prinsip perjuangan calon Bebas. Definisi Bebas kini sudah dicemar dan mungkin tidak boleh dipercayai lagi. Usahlah berselindung di belakang perjuangan Bebas semata-mata untuk mengaut habuan berlipat ganda. Umum mengetahui peluang untuk calon Bebas memenangi PRU bukan mudah. Tiada jentera parti, tiada duit dan tiada platform. Tetapi itu tidak bermakna maruah dan kredibiliti mereka perlu digadaikan. Itu sebabnya calon-calon Bebas jarang mendapat sambutan dalam kalangan pengundi. Kalau ada yang menang pun, mungkin kerana calon itu merupakan calon heavyweight dan popular. Oleh itu, kepada mana-mana individu yang berhasrat menjadi seorang calon Bebas, berjuanglah secara jujur dan ikhlas. Jika anda bertanding sebagai calon Bebas, maka tunjukkanlah sikap "Bebas" yang dilaung-laungkan itu. Tiada gunanya jika semangat serta jiwa adalah Bebas tetapi tingkah-laku dan tutur kata menggambarkan perkara yang sebaliknya? Jangan juga menjadi kata politik. Wajarkah pengundi terus percaya kepada calon-calon sebegini? * Pandangan di atas hanyalah pandangan peribadi penulis. |
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